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| Y2K, Synergistically Speaking By Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., CEM, City of Los Angeles, Emergency Preparedness Division |
| Synergy is the name of the Emergency Preparedness Division's Newsletter. For the Year 2000 issue, synergy is just what's needed to assure continuity of the community. Synergy is where the sum of the parts exceeds the whole. The parts in this scenario are represented by the community at large - the individuals, the corporations, the adjacent governmental communities, the state, the federal government, and the mom-and-pop businesses. Those parts also include the public health sector, the public safety sector, the public works (infrastructure) sector, as well as the public information sector. By building synergy among these parts, we can have a stronger community. The City of Los Angeles, through its Emergency Operations Board, has created a unique public/private task force that serves as the national model for preparedness and contingency planning: The Los Angeles Task Force on Millennium Management. The task force is focused on preparedness and contingency planning for basic lifeline services by anticipating the range of possible emergency scenarios that could result from computer malfunctions. The mission of the task force is to help the city minimize the negative consequences of Y2K and to protect the health, safety, and welfare of residents. It advocates that everyone - individuals, neighborhoods, companies and their employees, churches, etc. - begin examining how everyday functions involve computers and microchips. The question to pose oneself is: "When these systems fail, what will I do? What if computer glitches cause delays in food shipments to supermarkets? What if water supplies cannot be purified? Who will take care of my children if I'm an emergency worker and called out for long periods of time?" Contingency planning is a critical commitment for the city. Maintaining public services and minimizing disruptions are of critical importance to the local economy and the health, safety, and welfare of Los Angeles city residents and workers. The main battle against Year 2000 disruptions will be waged in an effort to remediate non-compliant computers and embedded systems. However, no matter how diligent one is in their efforts, they cannot foresee every possible area vulnerable to the Millennium Bug; therefore, the necessity of contingency planning is again realized. The recent increase in Y2K awareness is the first step to preparation. However, what type of awareness it is, whether alarmist or optimist, is very important. The wrong reaction, i.e. panic arising from alarmist information, can be worse than no reaction at all. As emergency managers, we must also be prepared for the alarmist reaction. The potential to create synergy by bringing together individuals into a community group i.e., "Millennium Management Task Force" is real. The subject matter must reach across industry boundaries because the problem obliterates these distinctions. It has to move past assessment and awareness to action. For the vast majority of us, escape to a cabin in the woods or to a farm is not feasible in preparing the personal contingency plan. Most of us live in cities and do not have the ability to go somewhere else. Therefore, our planning must center on our community, large or small, and how best to minimize the impact there. Those people living in major cities will feel much less of an impact from Y2K disruptions. The down side is that in high-rise apartments, or even four-story walk-ups, the small impact can be severe if it cuts off power or heat for any period of time, especially for those people in the northeast part of the country. We need to remember that we are all individualists. Your "no big deal" could be my "serious" and my serious could be no big deal for you. It all depends on what you need at a specific time to be comfortable. All the evidence I have seen points to fewer problems, fewer downtimes, and fewer failures. The evidence is becoming significant enough to begin to turn the tide of public opinion. So how do you "stay where you are"? How do you stay at home and prepare for potentially significant problems? First of all, do we really need to do that? Well, do you buckle your seatbelt? Do you put your infant in a car-carrier? Do you carry auto insurance? We are talking about the same attitude here. We are talking about insurance. More and more I am seeing discussions in newsgroups about contingency planning that involves some degree of preparation. What is real, what is prudent, what is excessive, just where are the lines? No one really knows but, more importantly, when you consider your individual contingency planning, it doesn't matter. Your personal contingency planning must be done to the extent that it makes YOU comfortable. What do YOU need to be able to sleep at night? If you need to plan for a week in your apartment without power or water, then do that. We do need, however, to be careful that we are not re-inventing the wheel. It is time for communities to get together and begin to work on this problem as a group and to develop action plans for themselves and their neighbors. Synergy is where the sum of the parts EXCEEDS the whole. You need parts to do that. Gartner Group has been conducting surveys on Y2K readiness in many countries. Their reports are widely read and quoted. In one of their reports, researchers at Gartner Group said; "The year 2000 problem is analogous to a major storm." They added, "in this case it will be, at worst, similar to a hurricane, cyclone, or bad snowstorm. For individuals, the year 2000 will not be a catastrophe such as a severe earthquake, a huge asteroid crashing into the earth, or a nuclear war." Cassell, Gartner Group's vice president and director of research, said, "We've been reading an awful lot of what we think are irresponsible statements that could lead people to do some unnatural acts." Gartner Group's Year 2000 team is suggesting that families have about two weeks of salary in cash and up to five days of food, water, fuel, and medical supplies on hand. People will not believe the alarmists, but they will believe the moderates, and believing the moderates is believing that we have a Y99 problem. Close to the end of 1999, rumors will start affecting our lives. An accidental shortage of an essential commodity will be interpreted to be Y2K related. An occurrence that would have otherwise gone unnoticed may cause panic. Rumors may not necessarily originate from the U.S. A large number of U.S. banks and businesses have an international presence. For instance, a rumor of a bank run in Europe may have catastrophic implications in the U.S. Most major credit cards and ATM debit cards of major banks allow worldwide access. It may be logical to expect that a scare in, say, the Middle East may spark the flame. In the SEC filings, almost all companies are stating that they may be adversely affected by the non-compliance of their suppliers, customers, and service providers. Many companies feel that failures abroad could cause severe loss to them. A lot of companies are raising their Y2K budgets. A 30% increase in expected costs with about a year to go is not a good omen. If all the companies remain apprehensive of the overall state of affairs well into 1999 then they could start advising their employees to stock essential commodities. They will do this to ensure that their employees report on duty in the first week of 2000. What appears as harmless advice would, when compounded globally, certainly lead to disastrous consequences in Y99. Y2K is also a Y99 management problem. The governments must face it on a war footing. Lines in front of supermarkets in Y99 could lead to rioting. The governments must be prepared to feed the additional demand. To be in a position to do this, they must assess the additional demand of essential commodities and ensure adequate buildup of inventory to meet this additional demand. If producers and manufacturers do not build up an inventory in early 1999 to take care of the additional demand, they will have to nearly double their production in late 1999 - a practical impossibility. To increase the inventory levels is easier said than done. It requires a lot of surplus money, storage space, and lots of planning. If money is not available then governments and banks could possibly help. But what about storage space? Another effort that is occurring locally is the Los Angeles Area Critical External Services Council Project. This effort is designed to establish, in a smooth and seamless process, the linkages necessary to reach all these commodities that might be necessary before, during, and after a disaster. This effort needs continual support from the business and industry community. The alarmists suggest that we should withdraw all our savings from the bank accounts while the ATMs work. They warn that there will be bank runs. They predict hyperinflation and the purchasing power of paper currency and paper assets going down. Many optimists dismiss this advice as contributing to the threat through self-fulfillment. They suggest that we withdraw only an additional $500 to take care of the minor disruptions which may occur. If people feel they must withdraw some additional cash then they must do so now. The spacing out of the withdrawals will prevent the frenzy on the eve of 2000 and will give the governments and banks enough time to plan. Too late is too risky. There is a common belief that our financial system is "too big to fail." We have a Y2K warning. Some of the leaders seem to be ignoring the warning. Does it not remind you of Titanic - the unsinkable ship? John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview, "It's the people who say you don't have to worry about it that you have to worry about." First, all organizations, no matter how small, need to examine their operations to assess their risk and to formulate proactive responses to the presence of Y2K failures in their computer and electronic equipment. Many organizations are incorrectly assuming there is little for them to do because their computer use is not critical to their operations. This assumption needs to be questioned, particularly in light of uncertain effects Y2K will have on vendors, suppliers, customers, and clients. An assessment that looks at equipment and dependencies on external sources is the first step. The Small Business Administration has a checklist available for Y2K preparations with suggestions of steps to take, including evaluating the readiness of personal computers, and references to consult. After formulating a proactive response to the presence of Y2K weaknesses within the organization, the next step is to develop a contingency plan. This is perhaps the most crucial activity for a small organization. The City of Los Angeles recognizes the Y2K problem is not a technical exercise - it's a societal challenge. We can and should take steps to protect our neighbors, friends, families, and ourselves. Our objective is clear: 1. To raise public awareness and alert public sector organizations of potential Y2K related issues such as health and safety risks as well as interruption of basic and essential services; 2. Promote community preparedness activities; 3. Monitor federal, state, and local Y2K activities as they relate to public welfare; 4. Promote contingency planning for all health, safety, and essential services; and 5. Establish a clearinghouse for neighborhood and community preparedness activities. Ellis M. Stanley, Sr. is the Coordinator of the Emergency Operations Organization for the City of Los Angeles and he is responsible for managing the City's Emergency Management Program. He is a Certified Emergency Manager (CEM) with twenty five years in the profession. |
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